NFL Power Rankings – Week 8

Power RankingsA few tweaks but nothing overly surprising in this week’s NFL Power Rankings are ready for NFL Week 7.  I think most people have come around to understanding that these rankings are spot-on and infallible.  As always thanks for all the work by Gary Plonderson and always appreciate your thoughtful feedback.

  1. Packers – An off-week will do nothing to diminish their dominance.
  2. Patriots – It could really have been a major upset with the Jets this week but even if the NYJ had pulled off the stunner, they would still be #2.
  3. Panthers – It’s a big drop-off from the Patriots and truthfully it’s a crapshoot with …
  4. Cowboys – Dropping one spot due to public pressure and demand but the loss to the Giants with so many miscues just solidifies the power of the Star.
  5. Seahawks – Last season the Cowboys pulled off a stunning upset in Seattle.  And this year the Hawks travel to big D next week.  Could be interesting because these guys are clicking now.
  6. Bengals – It’s not always about winning but sometimes it is.
  7. Broncos – Broncos were off last week so why do they drop two spots?  Its kinda like when you are hungry on a Monday and all your favorite restaurants are closed.  Just happens…
  8. Falcons – We are who we thought they are.  A hard hard time to figure out but they didn’t do anything to impress with a 10-7 win last week.
  9. Cardinals – Stay in the same spot after holding off the Ravens who just can’t seem to catch a break.
  10. Jets – Holding at the #10 spot after the near upset last week.

NFL Power Rankings – Week 7

After a surprising Week 6 to some the much anticipated (and highly scientific) NFL Power Rankings are ready for NFL Week 7.  Again, for those unfamiliar, the algorithm used in these calculations is beyond your comprehension but it is generally regarded as the most comprehensive, exhaustive and all-encompassing rating system known to man and this has been verified by Gary Plonderson.  So, point is, just realize that is right.

  1. Packers – remain their top spot despite a lackluster performance this week – they still have the best QB in the league and that says a lot
  2. Patriots – they know how to win each week even when it requires a complete blunder by their emotionally charged opponent.
  3. Cowboys – they did nothing to hurt themselves this week.  Physically that is and keeping them from being hurt seems to be an impossible task
  4. Panthers – the biggest mover of the week with a huge win against Seattle.
  5. Broncos – ugly doesn’t begin to describe this effort and frustrating if you were giving 3.5 (the half being the important part of that statement)
  6. Seahawks – don’t doubt their record and high rating… schedule is tough but they will be there when this shakes out.
  7. Bengals – Why so low some may ask?  Their confidence is building but their luck of other team’s timely injuries is fortuitous.
  8. Falcons – We are who we thought they are.  Actually they got the reverse Bengal treatment.  They are probably a little higher than this ranking despite stb against the Saints.
  9. Cardinals – Lackluster effort against Pittsburgh makes them a big drop in the rankings this week.
  10. Jets – First appearance – Chris Ivory is an unsung top NFL RB.  Take note.

Argue if you’d like but this is on point.

NFL Power Rankings – After Week 5

After the conclusion of Week #5 in the NFL here are the much anticipated G-Squared Power Rankings.  The secret formula, which will remain unpublished under the watchful eye of the master statistician Gary Plonderson, will be criticized often but is widely regarded as the most accurate and fully insightful metric known to mankind.

  1. Packers
  2. Patriots
  3. Cowboys
  4. Cardinals
  5. Broncos
  6. Falcons
  7. Seahawks
  8. Giants
  9. Bengals
  10. Panthers


Overrated: Punting

Punting_Football_Wide Punting is Overrated

Don’t punt.  Ever.  Really.

Did you ever play Madden Football or NCAA Football with a kid on XBox or Playstation?  Do they ever roll a punter out there?  No.  Why?  They don’t want to give up the ball.  They never want to take their offense off the field.  They never want to give up.  So this post isn’t just about not punting in football, but it can be a life euphemism as well… don’t ever give up.  [read that with the best Jimmy Valvano voice possible or watch it]

So here’s the logic in several key points from a football standpoint.  When I read the book “Moneyball”, it really made me look at everything twice.  What other conventional wisdoms, really weren’t wise?  What about football?  Maybe going for two more frequent or on-sides kicks?  Hmmm…. wait…. what about punting?

Turns out, like most things, original thought was overrated.  Turns out it wasn’t only the kids who were going for it on 4th down.  Kevin Kelley, coach of the Pulaski (Ark) Academy, stopped punting for all intents and purposes during the 2007 season, which led them to Arkansas State 5A title in 2008.  Here’s their story.  Apparently Pulaski has a high powered offense but their decision to go for it is statistically justified.   From the article on Coach Kelley:  “If Pulaski has a fourth-and-8 at its own 5-yard line, Kelley said his explosive offense likely will convert a first down at least 50 percent of the time. If it fails to convert, statistical data from the college level shows that an opponent acquiring the ball inside the 10-yard line scores a touchdown 90 percent of the time. If Pulaski punts away (i.e., a 40-yard punt with a 10-yard return) the other team will start with the ball on the 38-yard line and score a touchdown 77 percent of the time. The difference is only 13 percent.”

Of 120 Division I FBS schools, 75 teams rated 50% or better on their 4th down conversion attempts in 2012.  The three schools who attempted to move the chains on 4th down the most?  Army, Georgia Tech and LA-Monroe all attempted it more than 3 times per game and were successful 51%, 64% and 69% of the time respectively.  Take it one step further and only two teams out of those 120 were below 25% success and one of those teams was Coach Pasqualoni’s UConn squad, which is more of a indictment on poor coaching than the strategy of going for it on 4th down.  Now I understand that most of these teams choose to go for it on 4th down because it is short yardage or other advantageous reasons, like field position, but what does that say about the times where it is 4th and 1 and the punter runs out there?

4th down graph

In researchng this blog post, I came across a 4th down study that goes further indepth into the numbers and as a result produces this chart for coaches to follow. In fact this article from Advanced NFL Stats is tremendous and goes way further in depth than most of you looking for an entertaining argument would like, but for those who are interested: Here it is.  Knowing how coaches need an article, a headset and an assistant to figure out whether to go for one or two, I figure this chart should be very handy on the sidelines.  Doesn’t it drive you crazy when a team scores on their first possession in the first quarter, lead 6-0 and the coach holds up a one finger… you know, just in case anyone was thinking he might want to go for two?

This leads me to my next question:  Why don’t more coaches do what Kevin Kelley did or even more like Georgia Tech?  Why don’t they go for it?  Simply put:  They are sheep.  Stupid stupid sheep.  They are being led to the slaughter but the coaches are afraid of getting to the slaughter too quickly so they decide to play it conservative.  Don’t challenge anything… just keep playing by the same rules, ideals and philosophies of yesteryear.  They are doing what the scouts did in Moneyball and the coach who rethinks this first will be a genius.  That is if the fans and press let him enough rope to be successful with it.

Think of some of the other advantages:  Extra roster spot that was used for the punter, no more punting practices, instead that valuable time can be used for regular game situations and you keep the other team on their heels.  Just like in Moneyball, if you give up outs, you give up runs.  When you give up the ball on 4th down in football, you give the other team the opportunity.  Want one more reason: When the team you root for stops an opponent on 3rd down, you are so happy to be getting the ball, right?  In fact, if the opposing team lines up to go for it on 4th down, you get nervous and upset… you want them to punt.  Which is just one more reason why you shouldn’t… your opponent wants you to.

Stop the madness.  Stop punting.



Overrated: Cal Ripken, Jr.

Cal Weeps

Cal Ripken, Jr. 

The famous rant that has cost me much derision, scorn & contempt…  I’m not sure what exactly being “much maligned” means but I think that I am that as well because of my stance on Cal Ripken.  So, now I will write words that will surely come back to haunt me.

Cal Ripken is overrated.  Not by me exactly… because I don’t rate Cal highly to start with, so the public perception of Cal Ripken, Jr. is much overrated.  Here’s the case:

  • 1) First, he is a Jr… Junior is ridiculous. Stand on your own. Don’t live off your father’s legacy. Be your own man.
  • 2) He is a lifetime .276 hitter. Wow. Does that jump out at you as a Hall-of-Fame credential? Perhaps… if the person jacked 600 HRs.
  • 3) He averaged about 20 home runs a season. Yawn.
  • 4) He grounded into more double plays than any other player in major league history, so he does own that record. That’s something.
  • 5) People will argue about his incredible fielding. This is the biggest joke going. He covered as much real estate at short-stop as I would with an ingrown toenail. His range was miniscule and therefore he didn’t boot the ball often. How impressive! The gold glove is another arbitrary award handed out on reputation.
  • 6) The thing he did so well? He showed up for work every day for 16 seasons. Impressed? Don’t be. An average (not batting average… just average) guy showing up for work…Work that consists of 3 hours, 161 times a year. Approximately 480 hours a year. That’s like a 12 week year for most of the working populous. I’ll give him this … he was good at not getting hurt.

Don’t get me wrong.  Cal was a good baseball player.  Easily liked.  Good role-model.  Arguably, because of that durability and longevity thing, he is even probably a hall-of-famer.  But clearly and obviously overrated.